IDF preparing for mass evacuations in case of Hezbollah missile strike

haaretz.com

Published 03:41 20.05.10

Army fears new Lebanon confrontation would result in heavier warheads being launched at Tel Aviv.

By Amos Harel

The Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command is putting together a plan for the mass evacuation of civilians in the event of missile and rocket attacks. Hezbollah's rockets can currently hit practically everywhere in the country.

A policeman at the site of a Hezbollah rocket strike Nahariya during the Second Lebanon War in 2006

Photo by: AP

The plan will be studied as part of next week's nationwide Home Front Command exercise. Defense officials are preparing for war scenarios including massive missile strikes on the home front.

The authorities are assuming that many rockets would be fired at the northern border, rockets with heavier warheads would be aimed at the greater Tel Aviv area, and some IDF bases might be the first targets.

Sources at Home Front Command say that in the event of war, the state would only evacuate civilians in certain areas such as the northern border, which may come under heavy bombardment.

The main challenge, a senior Home Front Command officer told Haaretz, involves assisting civilians who would leave their homes on their own initiative. During the 1991 Gulf War, the authorities had a mixed reaction to people leaving their homes; sometimes they condemned this outright. This time they would treat the phenomenon as a given to be dealt with.

"In '91, people went to work during the day, and at night wanted to get their families out of the center of the country, because the Dan Region was considered a high-risk area," the senior officer said. "But at that time, 42 missiles fell. This time the scenarios are talking about thousands of missiles and rockets."

Some civilians might decide it's better to move to the lower-risk areas, he added.

In the Second Lebanon War in 2006, many residents of the north left for the center of the country and West Bank settlements, which were out of Hezbollah's missile range at the time.

"It will be impossible to ignore such a phenomenon anymore. We'll have to prepare for hundreds of thousands of evacuees during a war. We think some 70 percent will make their own arrangements at the homes of relatives or in hotels," the officer said.

"Another 30 percent will need help from the state. We are still at an early stage of studying the method. In real time, we'll have to go with the flow, based on a system we'll set up ahead of time."

GOC Home Front Command Yair Golan recently wrote a document outlining the main points of the evacuation plan, which was distributed to the General Staff and the Defense Ministry.

The state should be responsible for helping local authorities take in civilians arriving from high-risk zones, Golan wrote. Funding should be made available to local authorities that need it, public buildings should be found that can serve as temporary shelters, and the authorities should have volunteers, doctors and social workers at the ready.

Golan also proposes that lists be made of families willing to take people in.

Underground areas like parking garages should also be considered for housing, as would tent cities in nature reserves, and even low-risk army bases.

Preparing cities to take in people fleeing high-risk areas will involve closer links between the IDF and local authorities, a process that has been underway since the Second Lebanon War. Sixty-eight cities and towns will take part in next week's drill.

Why This Summer Could Change the World _ axis to wipe out Israel

Thursday, May 20, 2010

bible-prophecy-today

By Jan Markell
Olive Tree Ministries

There is always Middle East conflict and war is frequently breaking out in that region. Why could a forthcoming war change the world? A little too sensational, you say? When the "epicenter" is involved, always pay attention. While the situation in the Middle East is generally unstable, it could move to the disaster zone this summer or fall.

Major General Paul Vallely is a wise military man. He has been a guest on my radio program, "Understanding the Times." He is now making a media circuit warning anyone who will listen that dark storm clouds are on the horizon in the Middle East. He has gotten information, it would seem, from Israel because what he is sharing is detailed. He surely hasn't gotten it from the Obama administration who is a part of the legions of nations deceived that if only Israel would go away, there would be world peace.

We're back to the term an "axis of evil." This axis is scheming to wipe out Israel and the nations include Iran, Syria, Russia, and the biggest player, Hezbollah which operates in south Lebanon. Israel went to war with Hezbollah in 2006. It was half-hearted even though the destruction on both sides was major. According to Vallely's sources, the Iranians are working with Syria and Hezbollah and are planning a pre-emptive strike soon to stop Israel's expected pre-emptive move against Iran. What a chess board! This operation is coming down to the wire. Sources say the chaos will begin in a few weeks to a few months. It is all based on the fact that Iran is now set to go with her nukes and most of them are pointed at Israel.

Here is the startling news: Just weeks ago a Soviet sub docked in Beirut, Lebanon. It was flying the Iranian flag. Workers on the sub were seen to be wearing masks suggesting that they were unloading something chemical. And it was likely a weapon or weapons of mass destruction.

But Hezbollah has extensive plans that go beyond this. The potential Hezbollah offensive includes chemically armed SCUD missiles with a 450 km range, preemptive strikes on Israeli air fields, and a wave of tunnel attacks that cross from Lebanon into Israel. There are some 60,000 rockets and missiles in south Lebanon hiding in houses, orchards, and miscellaneous buildings. Some of these are advanced scuds which have the capability to hit every city in Israel. The intention is to rein terror on Israel with maximum damage. Israel has been giving out gas masks - a procedure that has become all too frequent.

Major Vallely states that Israel's jets and airstrips are in the sites of the enemy. Hezbollah and other participants in this forthcoming battle want to make it impossible for Israel to strike anyone by air. Vallely has highlighted possible chemical weapons of mass destruction, thousands of scud missiles, tunnels, and neutralizing Israel's fighter jets. It seems all the bases have been covered. And don't forget the "martyrs." The enemy is stocking up on young men and women who will joyfully place themselves in positions where they can self-detonate with maximum damage. They will likely use the tunnels as well.

So what does Washington think of Hezbollah? John Brennan, assistant to US President Barack Obama for homeland security and counterterrorism, told a Washington conference on Tuesday that Lebanese terrorist militia Hezbollah has evolved significantly over the years, and cannot today be defined as a purely hostile and evil entity.

Reuters quoted Brennan as telling conference participants that Hezbollah is a "very interesting organization" that has evolved from a "purely terrorist organization" into a movement that now boasts members of parliament and even cabinet ministers. Brennan states, "I'm glad to see that Hezbollah is renouncing terrorism and violence..."

Oh, really? Is this deception, delusion, or bold-face lies?

The kind of an attack outlined in this article will force Israel to strike back with ferocity. If chemical weapons are dumped on her, she will have to use her own weapons of mass destruction. We have the makings of a disaster in the Middle East and the fall-out will be felt around the world. A Jew will not be safe anywhere. A friend of Israel may not be either. Don't expect any help or comfort from the White House or State Department. Israel is their sacrificial lamb.

So she is on her own - except for God. This is good! He won't let her down. God has a covenant with Israel that is repeated throughout the Bible. A prominent passage is Genesis 17:6-8. God is not just a covenant maker - He is a covenant keeper! Take that to heart, Christian. With God on our side, that is a majority!

The Jews were irresponsible with their slow reaction to the warnings of the 1930s and 1940s and the results were catastrophic. Over one-third of European Jewry was annihilated. They made a second mistake in 1973 when Israel was caught off guard in the Yom Kippur War. On a smaller scale, Israel has made mistakes in lesser wars such as with Hezbollah in 2006. She was forced to fight with one arm tied behind her back and few ground troops. When she doesn't finish the job, her enemies return and everything is more deadly. Had she finished the job properly with Hezbollah in 2006, we might not have the scenario building that is outlined here.

The Western world is myopic. At best they give a gigantic yawn as it concerns issues that are far away from home. Besides, people are struggling with their own problems and they feel they cannot take on more catastrophes. But a major Middle East war will shake up the world so come out from under your denial blanket if that's where you are. At the very least, pray about this volatile issue. Inform others. Ask your pastor to give a message on the importance of Israel. At the same time, show compassion to the Arab world who is steeped in a religion that encourages their followers to die for Allah. Many disillusioned Muslims are coming to faith in Jesus Christ.

The biggest weapon being used by Satan is ignorance. Most people have not a clue as to the historical issues surrounding Middle East conflicts. Most Christians do not know that the term "Palestinian" was never used before the mid-1960s when Yasser Arafat coined the term. There is so much historical revisionism that has taken place it is a wonder anyone can figure out the complexities of the Middle East. I encourage you to take a look at a DVD I made two years ago entitled Myths and Facts About the Middle East. This explains some of misconceptions.

You can hear Maj. Vallely's entire remarks here.

The speed with which end-time related events are breaking is staggering. You were born for such a time as this and you are an intricate part of God's plan for this generation. See these trying times as a gift from God to you: He trusts you to serve Him at this time. Read more:

Nationwide Home Front Exercise End May in Israel

05/16/10, 4:21 PM

by Hillel Fendel

(IsraelNationalNews.com) The IDF Home Front Command has launched a media campaign in preparation for the national Home Front exercise known in Hebrew as Nekudat Mifneh 4 (Turning Point 4).

The joint exercise will be held by the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA), the IDF Home Front Command, the Israel Police, Magen David Adom emergency services, government offices and local authorities. It will simulate various emergency scenarios and responses provided to civilians in Israel. The focus will be the sounding of a siren across Israel on Wednesday, May 26, at 11:00 AM, requesting that all residents enter protected spaces specified in advance.

The media campaign will include television and radio broadcasts in Hebrew and other languages, as well as internet ads directing the public to the Home Front Command website. In addition, the campaign will include ads in national and target-specific newspapers, such as hareidi-religious and Arabic newspapers.

This year marks the fourth consecutive year the exercise has taken place. It was planned as part of the annual training graph, and was prepared over the past few months by a national administration comprised of various officials. The exercise is billed as "another opportunity to prepare the public and municipal authorities for emergency periods."

During last year's Turning Point 3 five-day exercise, representatives from 70 nations participated as observers, watching Israel simulate a war with Hamas, Hizbullah, and Syria combined with Arab riots and terrorist attacks. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu explained last year that Israel is called upon to provide not only an offensive response to the threats surrounding the country, but also a defensive response for the civilian population.

Tactical High Energy Laser

THEL/ACTD

The Tactical High-Energy Laser, or THEL, is a laser developed for military use, also known as the Nautilus laser system. The mobile version is the Mobile Tactical High-Energy Laser, or MTHEL.

On July 18, 1996, the United States and Israel entered an agreement to produce a cooperative THEL called the Demonstrator, which would utilize deuterium fluoride laser chemical laser technologies. Primary among the four contractors awarded the project on September 30, 1996 are Northrop Grumman (formerly TRW.) THEL conducted test firing in FY1998, and Initial Operating Capability (IOC) was planned in FY1999. However this was significantly delayed due to reorienting the project as a mobile, not fixed design, called Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser (MTHEL). The original fixed location design eliminates most weight, size and power restrictions, but is not compatible with the fluid, mobile nature of modern combat. The initial MTHEL goal was a mobile version the size of three large semi trailers. Ideally it would be further downsized to a single semi trailer size. However, doing this while maintaining the original performance characteristics is difficult. Furthermore, the Israeli government, which had been providing significant funding, decreased their financial support in 2004, postponing the IOC date to at least 2010.

In 2000 and 2001 THEL shot down 28 Katyusha artillery rockets and 5 artillery shells.

On November 4, 2002, THEL shot down an incoming artillery shell. A mobile version completed successful testing. During a test conducted on August 24, 2004 the system successfully shot down multiple mortar rounds. The test represented actual mortar threat scenarios. Targets were intercepted by the THEL testbed and destroyed. Both single mortar rounds and salvo were tested.

Even though military experts such as the former head of the Administration for the Development of Weapons and the Technological Industry, Aluf Yitzhak Ben Yisrael, were calling for the implementation of the THEL, the project was discontinued.^[1] During the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict, Ben Yisrael, currently the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency, renewed his calls to implement the THEL against high-trajectory fire.

''ME nuclear-free zone'' - euphemism for stripping Israel of its purported nuclear capability

Friday, May 7, 2010

Time to Plan for War

By Caroline Glick
CarolineGlick.com

So much for US President Barack Obama's famed powers of persuasion. At the UN's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference which opened this week, the Obama administration managed to lose control over the agenda before the conference even started.

Obama administration officials said they intended to use the conference as a platform to mount international pressure on Iran to stop its illicit nuclear proliferation activities. But even before the conference began, with a little prodding from Egypt, the administration agreed that instead of focusing on Iran, the conference would adopt Iran's chosen agenda: attacking Israel for its alleged nuclear arsenal.

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that US officials were conducting negotiations with Egypt about Egypt's demand that the NPT review conference call for sanctions against Israel for refusing to join the NPT as a non-nuclear state. The Journal quoted a senior administration official involved in the discussions saying, "We've made a proposal to them [Egypt] that goes beyond what the U.S. has been willing to do before."

Among other possibilities, that proposal may have included a US agreement to appoint a UN envoy responsible for organizing a UN conference calling for the Greater Middle East to become a nuclear-free zone. In diplomatese, "Middle East nuclear-free zone" is a well-accepted euphemism for stripping Israel of its purported nuclear capability while turning a blind eye to Iranian, Syrian and other Islamic nuclear weapons programs. Egypt's demand, which it convinced more than a hundred members of the Non-Aligned bloc to sign onto, is for Israel to open its nuclear installations to international inspectors as a first step towards unilateral nuclear disarmament.

On Wednesday the US joined the other four permanent members of the Security Council in signing a statement calling for a nuclear-free Middle East and urging Israel, Pakistan and India to accede to the NPT as non-nuclear states. Following the US's lead, on Thursday Yukiya Amano, the new Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote a letter to IAEA member states asking for their suggestions for how to convince Israel to sign the NPT.

So as Iran - an NPT signatory - makes a mockery of the treaty by building nuclear weapons in contempt of its treaty obligations, the US has actively supported Iran's bid to use the NPT review conference as yet another UN forum for bashing Israel.

It bears recalling that the primary goal of the NPT is to prevent nuclear proliferation. From the amount of attention Israel is receiving at the NPT review conference, you could easily get the impression that Israel's purported nuclear arsenal is the gravest proliferation threat in the world today. But history shows that this is nonsense.

Israel's alleged nuclear arsenal, which it has reportedly fielded for four decades, has not led to a regional nuclear arms race. Notwithstanding their protestations to the contrary, Israel's neighbors fully recognize that the purpose of Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal is to guarantee Israel's survival and consequently only threatens those who would attack the Jewish state with the intention of annihilating it. This is why although it is four decades old; Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal has never caused a regional nuclear arms race. It has never harmed or called into question the relevance or usefulness of the NPT's international non-proliferation agenda. Moreover, as a non-signatory to the NPT, Israel has the right to develop a nuclear program.

Iran on the other hand gave up that right when it joined the NPT regime. So too, in sharp contrast to Israel's alleged program, it is clear that Iran's nuclear project is aggressive rather than defensive. Consequently, it is universally recognized that if Iran becomes a nuclear power, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other states will begin developing their own nuclear arsenals in short order. That is, it is absolutely clear that if the NPT is to have any relevance in the coming years, if there is to be any hope that counter-proliferation regimes can be useful; preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons must be its signatories' chief aim.

But due to the Obama administration's diplomatic fecklessness and ideological blinders, administration officials were incapable of making these points. And so, instead through its actions, the administration has advanced the cause of nuclear proliferation. The US has now joined the ranks of fools who claim that nuclear weapons in the hands of states like the US and Israel are as problematic as nuclear weapons in the hands of states like Iran and North Korea.

But then, in the end it makes no difference that the US has followed Iran's lead at the NPT conference. Even if the administration had managed to make Iran's nuclear weapons program the focus of debate, it wouldn't have mattered because diplomacy is no longer a relevant tool for preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Appeasement has failed. Sanctions are dead in the water in the Security Council.

And even if the Security Council passes a sanctions resolution, they will have no impact on Iran's behavior. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made that much clear in his speech on Monday and in subsequent remarks to the media. As he put it, "While we do not welcome sanctions, we do not fear them either. Sanctions cannot stop the Iranian nation."

What all of this demonstrates is that the diplomatic track - from appeasement to sanctions - is irrelevant for contending with Iran's nuclear program. The only way to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear bombs is to use military force to destroy or severely damage its nuclear installations.

And this of course is something Obama will not do. His begging-to-shake-hands policy towards Iran on the one hand and his iron fist policy towards Israel on the other makes it absolutely clear that Obama will do nothing to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Rather than correct his abysmal failures, Obama seeks to hide them by minimizing the seriousness of the threat.

In remarks to the media this week, a White House official downplayed the Iranian threat. He told the Financial Times that Iran's "nuclear clock has slowed down. They are not making dramatic technical progress given the difficulties they are facing in their [uranium] enrichment program and the fact that their efforts to build secret facilities have been disclosed."

The fact that the US's published intelligence estimates of Iran's nuclear program contradict this claim didn't seem to faze the official.

The US's abdication of its responsibility as the leader of the free world to prevent the most dangerous regimes from acquiring the most dangerous weapons means that the responsibility for preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons has fallen on Israel's shoulders. Only Israel has the means and the will to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. And the message the NPT follies convey is that Israel must develop contingency plans for attacking Iran as quickly as possible.

Daily reports of weapons build-ups and military exercises in Iran and among Iran's clients Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas expose the contours of their war plans.

Syria and Iran have armed Hizbullah with some 40,000 missiles and rockets, including hundreds of Scud missiles and guided surface-to-surface solid fuel M600 missiles with a 250 km range and this week Hizbullah threatened to attack Israel with non-conventional weapons. Syria itself has a formidable chemical and biological arsenal as well as a massive artillery and missile force at its disposal.

As for Hamas, since Operation Cast Lead Iran's Palestinian proxy Hamas has expanded its own missile arsenal. Today it reportedly has projectiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv and beyond.

As for Iran, as its seemingly endless military exercises make clear, the mullocracy has the capacity to use conventional weapons to imperil global oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. So too, this week's report that Osama Bin Laden may have decamped to Iran in 2003 merely served to underline Iran's ability to utilize jihadist terror forces throughout the world.

From the open preparations for war that Iran and its clients have undertaken, it is clear that if they initiate the next round of fighting they will fight a four front war against Israel. That war will be dominated by missile attacks against the entire country aimed at breaking the will of the Israeli people while forcing the IDF to divert vital resources away from Israel's primary target - Iran's nuclear installations - to contend with Iran's proxies' missile stores.

As they consider Israel's options going forward, Israel's political and military leaders have to take two considerations into account. First, the side that initiates the conflict will be the side that controls the battle space. And second, there is a real possibility that the Obama administration will refuse to resupply Israel with vital weapons systems in the course of the war. The fact that Israel will be roundly condemned by the UN and its component parts is a certainty regardless of who initiates the conflict and therefore is irrelevant for operational planning.

Armed with these understandings, it is apparent that Israeli contingency plans for war must have limited goals and should be guided by the overarching aim of beginning and ending the war quickly. Luckily, Israel excels at limited, swift campaigns.

Responding to one of Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent threats, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman promised last month that if Assad attacks Israel, Israel will bring down his regime. While bringing about the utter defeat of Iran's regional proxies is a reasonable goal, it cannot be Israel's goal in the coming war.

In the coming war, Israel will have only one goal: to destroy or seriously damage Iran's nuclear installations. Every resource turned against Iran's proxies must be aimed at facilitating that goal. That is, the only thing Israel should seek to accomplish in contending with Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas is to prevent them from diverting Israeli resources away from attacking Iran's nuclear installations.

This means that Israel must launch a preemptive strike against Hizbullah's missiles and missile launchers, Syria's missiles, artillery and launchers, and Hamas's missiles and launchers. As for their short-range rockets, Israel should do its best to intercept them and otherwise hunker down to weather the storm of Katyushas and Qassams. Life on the homefront won't be easy. But it won't be impossible either, as we saw in 2006.

Almost every assessment of a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear installations has assumed that Israel will use its air force to strike. All that can be said of that analysis is that, just as there is more than one way to skin a cat, so there is more than one way to destroy Iran's nuclear installations. An Israeli strike should utilize all of them to keep the Iranians off balance and on the defensive.

These are dangerous times. Iran, which seeks to position itself as a regional superpower, has been emboldened by the Obama administration's abdication of US global leadership. Only Israel can prevent Iran from endangering the world. But time is of the essence.

The US is now undermining Israel at every turn

THE US AND ISRAEL ARE NOW ENEMIES

israpundit.com

May 03, 2010 By Ted Belman

Obama & Mitchell

A paradigm shift has now taken place in US/Israel relations. They are now enemies. The US is undermining Israel at every turn.

This new reality has come to my attention through an email from a highly placed source which follows.

****************************************************************************************

we heard it from a consultant to the United States who meets once a month with the President in the White house. This is what actually has happened with the relationship with Israel and the USA and it is not pretty:

1. Israel during the Bush and Clinton Administrations had landing rights in Turkey , and in the USA bases in the middle east and more recently under George Bush, in Iraq . This was in case they were invaded by Iran , or Saudi or any other Arab country. Obama has withdrawn those landing rights. Israel now has nowhere to refuel in the middle east.

2. Netanyahu was instructed to come to the white house for a meeting. He was brought in through a servants entrance - the only head of state ever in US history to be given that disgraceful treatment. He was not offered even a cup of tea, but was lectured to by Obama who told him that he is not permitted to attack Iran and that he has to withdraw all forces from the West bank and may not build any more settlements ( neighborhoods) in East Jerusalem.

3. Israel found out that there were four terrorists meeting in Dubai . As they have done for the past 62 years, they informed the US of that and said that these terrorists had to be dealt with. Obama said under no circumstances. Israel decided to go ahead. They killed the one terrorist who showed up. However the CIA was sent there to film the entire event by Obama and then a concerted PR campaign was waged by the White house to discredit Israel and what they did. This kind of action has taken place with US support for the past 62 years since we have common enemies.

4. Obama has refused to oppose Syria's re arming of Hezbollah and Hamas - Israel now sits in imminent danger from the amounts of missiles that can be sent into her territory.

5. Israel will never tell the US again of its plans, since they cannot trust us.

6. Israel intends to attack Iran - there are over 30 installations of which 4 have underground bunkers that contain nuclear weapons. Israel cannot wait any longer. The US is no longer supporting Israel's self defense.

7. This is the same man that gave the White House a full file on the 9.11 attack - his warnings and proof were laughed at.

8. He believes that the next attacks in the USA will be mass transportation subways and malls, especially the largest malls where the most people can be killed - and that Vegas and wherever there are conventions of employees will be a huge target. We are not prepared and are naive in our lack thereof.

9. Once Israel attacks Iran , every Jew and Jewish institution will be at risk - temples, religious schools etc. We must be prepared.

10. This kept a room of 200 people spellbound. It is not fiction. It is fact.

What can be done?

It is essential that everyone who doesn't know yet, now understands that the protection and survival of Israel is not on Obama's list - and he is now taking ACTUAL steps to move all protections away -- no more landing rights, negotiating with Iran and Syria, making nice to the Muslim World in the face of allies of long standing and he is no friend of the Jewish people and Israel.

We must be sure that we elect politicians who protect Israel as well as the USA - our interests are intertwined. Please forward to everyone you know.

*******************************************************************************************

As a student of events between Israel and the US, this rings true. I have no idea why Israel is hiding this from view by talking like everything is hunky dory. Yesterday it was reported Barak, Clinton: Tensions behind us. Does this mean that Israel has totally capitulated to the demands of Obama and thus are in now in his good graces? Or is it more disinformation?

Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Ted Belman
Jerusalem
054 441 3252

To subscribe visit this link

Barak's talk of no war tells Iran proxies- continue arming unhindered

Iran, Syria, Hizballah gear up to provoke summer war

http://www.debka.com/

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US defense secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday night, April 27: "Hizballah has far more rockets and missile than most governments in the world." He and Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak were talking to reporters after their talks in the Pentagon. Military sources did not see his as high commendation for Barak's achievements as defense minister.

All he had to contribute on this occasion was: "We do not intend to provoke any kind of major collision in Lebanon or with Syria, but are watching closely these developments."

Gates went on to accuse Syria and Iran of "providing Hizballah with rockets of ever-increasing capability," adding, "This is obviously destabilizing for the whole region and we're watching it very carefully.

Both defense chiefs seemed to think that careful watching would somehow erase the hostile buildup of deadly hardware.

In fact, Barak's comment told Iran, Syria and Hizballah they had nothing to fear from continuing their "carefully watched" buildup, even though Syria took it a step forward this month.

As debkafile's military sources reported last week, Syrian instructors have trained two Hizballah brigades in the use of mobile Scud missiles which carry one-ton warheads. It does not matter if those missiles are moved physically across the border to Lebanon, because those brigades can operate them against Israel at short notice from either side of the border.

Our Washington sources report that Syrian president Bashar Assad, under heavy pressure from Washington to keep the Scuds out of Hizballah's hands, explained to the Obama administration through diplomatic channels that as long as they were kept inside Syria, the Scuds must be seen as a defensive and deterrent weapon against a possible Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria. He thus placed on Israel the onus for any future outbreak of hostilities.

Gates' accusation of Iran and Syria Tuesday was the administration's way of telling Damascus that it does not buy that message.

Unlike the United States, Israel has a ringside seat for watching the rockets and missiles pile up just across its 70-kilometer long border with Lebanon. Gates' comment - and even more Barak's assurance - gave Syria and the Hizballah space to carry on building a mighty arsenal, which is aimed at only one country, Israel.

Barak as defense minister, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Israel's security chiefs need to explain how Hizballah was allowed in the four years since the 2006 war to pile up tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, which in volume and sophistication have already overtaken the weaponry that battered northern Israel then and which have extended their reach to all parts of Israel.

"Careful watch" - without corresponding action to interrupt the massive flow of weapons shipments constantly smuggled in from Syria to Hizballah - is a repeat of the misplaced self-restraint which invited the Hizballah to launch the last Lebanon conflict in the summer of 2006.

Dragging Israeli and its homeland into war in the summer of 2010 would serve the political and military interests of Iran, Syria and Hizballah well. It would generate a Middle East crisis overwhelming enough to focus international efforts on calming the situation, so distracting the world's attention Iran's arrival at the critical stages of its nuclear bomb program and its drive for sanctions against the Islamic Republic.